26.3.06

March 24, 2006: The US Federal Reserve has ceased to publish M3

As announced last February 15 by Leap/E2020, yesterday March 23, 2006, the US Federal Reserve (see link below) has ceased publishing M3, the most reliable indicator of the amount of USDs circulating in the world. The world is left without any reliable data on the dollar-value.

The Fed has also ceased publishing a number of less important indicators (such as the amount of EuroDollars, large-denomination time deposits, and repurchase agreements) which could have been used to calculate M3 on the basis of other aggregates.
It is important to bear in mind that the Fed continues to calculate M3 and the other indicators. It doesn’t cease to gather these data, but it no longer shares the information with US citizens and the rest of the world. To use a simple image, it is as if, on the eve of a war, the Pentagone suppressed GPS guidance, including for its own allies.
Such measure, which has had no equivalent since 1945, when the dollar imposed itself as the global monetary reference, is a major break in the confidence contract between the US and its Allies.
This is probably the reason why some refused to believe in the possibility to suppress M3 publication, and expressed doubts about LEAP/E2020’s analyses concerning a global systemic crisis.
Indeed, as a result of the Fed’s decision, it is now impossible to estimate major factors such as the amount of money created to repay the increasing US debt, or the resale of US Treasury bonds in order to buy Yens or Euros… all this at the precise time when uncertainty starts prevailing because a growing number of financial players (from oil producing countries as well as from Asian countries) are beginning to express their intention to sell part of their USDs.
In the coming weeks and months, Europe, Asia and oil-producing countries will have to learn how to navigate without instruments for everything that concerns the dollar value and US deficits’ repayment (pure money creation or based on real wealth). As regards US citizens, they too will have to bet on the worth of their own economy and currency.
According to Leap/E2020, the cessation of M3 publication is as important as Nixon’s unilateral decision to suspend the convertibility of the dollar into gold in 1971. In 1971, the dollar became a currency solely based on the rest of the world’s confidence. But this confidence mostly relied on the general feeling that US economy and its currency were managed transparently. With the end of M3 publication, this transparency disappears completely. The US now wants the world to trust their word, even in the field of their currency’s value. In a world where the confidence in the US has never been so low since 1945, the USD is thus turned into the central player of the beginning global systemic crisis.
Federal Reserve official annoucement


→ Confusion as regards the Iranian Oil Bourse… but confirmation that oil-producing countries’ assets are switched into Euros in significant amounts
A great confusion these days surrounds the exact status of the Iranian Oil Bourse, involved as it is in the complex diplomatic games of the Iran-USA crisis. A most contradictory information circulates (see Pravda). It is however certain (and that was the essential aspect of this Bourse) that the USD is ceasing to be the sole oil-trading exchange currency, as illustrated by the Gulf states’ recent decision to increase their reserves in Euros versus those in USD (middleeastforex). The Fed’s decision to end publication of M3 will accelerate this trend… if this decision was not intended to hide it as long as possible.
Indeed, the US refusal to let a Gulf state company (Dubaï) buy terminal operations at six major US seaports, has resulted in raising awareness in the Middle-East that the USD was a trap where they were in the end prevented from buying the real wealth available in the country of the currency they have accumulated.
Pravda & Middle East News Forex

24.3.06

March 24, 2006: The US Federal Reserve has ceased to publish M3

As announced last February 15 by Leap/E2020, yesterday March 23, 2006, the US Federal Reserve (see link below) has ceased publishing M3, the most reliable indicator of the amount of USDs circulating in the world. The world is left without any reliable data on the dollar-value. A special USA-Dollar-Iran Crisis Press Review.



ImageThe Fed has also ceased publishing a number of less important indicators (such as the amount of EuroDollars, large-denomination time deposits, and repurchase agreements) which could have been used to calculate M3 on the basis of other aggregates.
It is important to bear in mind that the Fed continues to calculate M3 and the other indicators. It doesn’t cease to gather these data, but it no longer shares the information with US citizens and the rest of the world. To use a simple image, it is as if, on the eve of a war, the Pentagone suppressed GPS guidance, including for its own allies.
Such measure, which has had no equivalent since 1945, when the dollar imposed itself as the global monetary reference, is a major break in the confidence contract between the US and its Allies.
This is probably the reason why some refused to believe in the possibility to suppress M3 publication, and expressed doubts about LEAP/E2020’s analyses concerning a global systemic crisis.
Indeed, as a result of the Fed’s decision, it is now impossible to estimate major factors such as the amount of money created to repay the increasing US debt, or the resale of US Treasury bonds in order to buy Yens or Euros… all this at the precise time when uncertainty starts prevailing because a growing number of financial players (from oil producing countries as well as from Asian countries) are beginning to express their intention to sell part of their USDs.
In the coming weeks and months, Europe, Asia and oil-producing countries will have to learn how to navigate without instruments for everything that concerns the dollar value and US deficits’ repayment (pure money creation or based on real wealth). As regards US citizens, they too will have to bet on the worth of their own economy and currency.
According to Leap/E2020, the cessation of M3 publication is as important as Nixon’s unilateral decision to suspend the convertibility of the dollar into gold in 1971. In 1971, the dollar became a currency solely based on the rest of the world’s confidence. But this confidence mostly relied on the general feeling that US economy and its currency were managed transparently. With the end of M3 publication, this transparency disappears completely. The US now wants the world to trust their word, even in the field of their currency’s value. In a world where the confidence in the US has never been so low since 1945, the USD is thus turned into the central player of the beginning global systemic crisis.
Federal Reserve official annoucement


→ Confusion as regards the Iranian Oil Bourse… but confirmation that oil-producing countries’ assets are switched into Euros in significant amounts
A great confusion these days surrounds the exact status of the Iranian Oil Bourse, involved as it is in the complex diplomatic games of the Iran-USA crisis. A most contradictory information circulates (see Pravda). It is however certain (and that was the essential aspect of this Bourse) that the USD is ceasing to be the sole oil-trading exchange currency, as illustrated by the Gulf states’ recent decision to increase their reserves in Euros versus those in USD (middleeastforex). The Fed’s decision to end publication of M3 will accelerate this trend… if this decision was not intended to hide it as long as possible.
Indeed, the US refusal to let a Gulf state company (Dubaï) buy terminal operations at six major US seaports, has resulted in raising awareness in the Middle-East that the USD was a trap where they were in the end prevented from buying the real wealth available in the country of the currency they have accumulated. SEe:
http://english.pravda.ru/world/asia/21-03-2006/77628-oil-0

16.3.06

USA-Dollar-Iran / Confirmation of Global Systemic Crisis end of March 2006

Nine indicators prove that the crisis is unfolding


Nine indicators developed in this month’s GlobalEurope Anticipation Bulletin N°3, which I coordinated, out of which 5 are presented in this article, enable LEAP/E2020 to confirm the beginning of a global systemic crisis by the end of March 2006. The recent international trends that particularly affect the international financial system, and the preoccupying trends in the US, namely as concerns the reliability of statistics on the US economy , have brought our research team to conclude that this global systemic crisis is already unfolding.

M3 is really the decisive indicator…
As illustrated by most of the 5 indicators developed in the present communication, the last weeks have confirmed how decisive is the US Federal Reserve’s decision to stop to publish M3 on March 23, 2006. LEAP/E2020 is now convinced that this decision anticipates a period of acceleration of money-printing by the US, concealed behind public declarations of inflation handling, that will result in the collapse of the US Dollar and in the monetarisation of the US debt (public and private), which a growing number of US experts now estimate that it will never be reimbursed considering its gigantic amount in constant growth (the US public debt now represents more than 8,000 billions dollars, i.e. about 4 times the federal budget in 2006 ). According to the very conservative Heritage Foundation, if we take in consideration the consequences on the budget of recent decisions made by the Bush Administration regarding health and pensions, the real debt is of 42,000 billions dollars, i.e. 18 times this year’s federal budget, and 3 ½ times the US GDP in 2005 .

… as well as Iran
Thus confirming the catalyst role of the opening of an Oil Bourse priced in Euros by Iran (recent Iranian allegations suggest that in case of an aggravation of the crisis, the Iranian authorities could simply decide to proceed to their international transactions in euros, thus following the example provided by Syria which decided a few weeks ago to adopt this policy) and/or that of a US and/or Israeli attack on Iran – probably a « surprise-attack » not supported by the UN Security Council -, the scope of the reaction to the publication of last month’s LEAP/E2020 Alert has revealed a deeply-rooted anxiety among a significant part of the actors of the financial system, individual actors mostly. This impact was particularly important in the US from where comments reached us mainly focused on the question of M3, the real-estate bubble, US deficits and the reliability of figures on the US economic performance. These reactions have led LEAP/E2020 to concentrate this second communication on these aspects of the global systemic crisis, all the more since a number of very preoccupying facts appeared in the last weeks.

The real-estate bubble starts collapsing …
Some of the predictions made by LEAP/E2020 already became true such as the collapse of the real-estate bubble in the US (for the first time in 5 years, new-home sales slid 5% in January 2006 compared to January 2005; and the stock of homes for sale languishes up to 6 months, a figure never reached since 1988 ). The end of the real-estate bubble will progressively affect the consumption of US households, one highly depending on their growing debt due to mortgage loans calculated on the basis of their home’s value . In parallel, the slow-down in the housing-related sector will directly affect employment, knowing that this sector alone has been providing 40% of private job creations these 5 last years in the US.

… currencies of emerging countries are really the first ones to be affected by the unfolding crisis…
During the week of February 20, 2006, Iceland’s Krona was downgraded by a credit rating agency calling the country’s credit deficit unsustainable. The National currency instantly plummeted 10%, causing emerging market currencies such as the Brazilian, South African, Mexican and Indonesian currencies , to decline due to the speculative positions taken by operators acting on those markets. During the week of March 6, 2006, it was the turn of Central and Eastern European currencies to plummet as a result of excessive deficits and of the implementation of new policies (increased interest rates and/or removal of liquidities) by the European and Japanese central banks. Finally, since March 14th 2006, Arabic stock markets are crashing down , including of course in Saudi Arabia and the Emirates (with a loss of already more than 15% and local experts predicting final losses up to 50% or 60%).

… and the crisis of confidence in the US economy really plays a key-role in the release of the global crisis
Among the aspects suggesting that the crisis is already beginning, there is the scope of the impact of LEAP/E2020’s February 2006 Alert itself, which indicates a high level of worry worldwide. According to LEAP/E2020, the international financial system, and in particular its dollar-base , now mostly rely on two interconnected pillars: on the one hand, the trust actors put in the system itself; and on the other hand, the statistics describing the systems’ trends. Regarding the second pillar, the impact of the LEAP/E2020 Alert is a significant indicator itself worth the analysis : with dozens of millions of page views, hundreds of thousands of individual visitors on www.europe2020.org , spontaneous translations of the paper in some twenty languages, being posted on hundreds of websites, medias and blogs worldwide, and the popularity of the analysis in the US themselves, all these elements reflect a growing worry about the system’s trends. This element is indeed an integral part of the global systemic crisis given that psychological factors, such as confidence, have become central in the system.

Five out of nine indicators suggesting an acceleration of the process of crisis
These are five out of the nine indicators proving, according to LEAP/E2020, that the system crisis is unfolding:
1. the US government operates in technical default since mid-February 2006, the debt ceiling authorized by the Congress has been reached since then. Since this date, the US government has suspended sales of the « State and Local Government series (SLGS) non-marketable Treasury Securities » designed to enable the printing of Treasury Bonds . According to US Treasury Secretary John Snow, if by mid-March, the Congress has not voted a rise of the statutory debt ceiling by 800 billion dollars (i.e. 10% of the current ceiling of 8,200 billion dollars, which was already raised twice in the last 3 years), the technical default will become very problematic.
2. Unexpected resignation of the Fed’s vice chairman, Roger Ferguson, in charge of crisis management, one week after the publication of our Alert while he had 8 years left to serve . Roger Ferguson had won high marks for his handling of the Fed’s initial response to the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks, which occured while Greenspan was in Europe. His opposition to the strategic choices made by new Fed’s chairman, was notorious.
3. Bank of China’s decision to allow investors to buy and sell gold using their USD in order to diversify its holdings, today mostly in USD .
4. Continued increase of US public and trade deficits in 2006 (respectively $119 billion in February et $68,5 billion in January) showing that current trends are not handled: on the contrary the drift accelerates. The deficit of the monthly budget review is the highest ever recorded. Washington no longer tries to mention improvements, but prefers to explain that these deficits do not mean anything because “the economy has changed”. This type of explanation was used too on the eve of the collapse of the « Internet » bubble, referring to the « new economy ». For information, along these last five years, the US borrowed more money from the rest of the world that they did in their cumulated history going from 1776 to 2000 .
5. Growing doubts in the US themselves on the reliability of US economic statistics , leading to counter-analyses showing that in the last three years, the US GDP is in fact decreasing and not increasing , and that the real inflation today rates between 6 and 12% (with direct consequences of course on the real profitability of the various types of investments).


Three different measures of the consumer price index:
in blue, the method used under the Clinton-presidency, in orange, the method used by the Bush administration, and in yellow, the method currently elaborated by US authorities.

Anticipation is therefore really required in order to limit the damage
A systemic crisis expands like a tsunami progressing through an ocean and hitting different coasts at different moments. When the wave hits a coast, the tsunami has been formed already long ago. An early information is clearly the only way to take some safety measures. In any event, considering the nine indicators developed in GEAB 3, it is now clear for LEAP/E2020 that the crisis is entering its release phase.

Considering the significance and the convergence of the trends confirming the anticipated systemic crisis, only trends as powerful could reverse the evolution described by LEAP/E2020. Until today, LEAP/E2020 was not able to identify the smallest of such reverse trends. Contrary to what some may say, « crises happen even when they are not of collective interest » (WWI or the 1929 crack already proved that). The Iran crisis, the Irak civil war, or the deterioration of US deficits prove that our international leaders have no hand over the events. It is vain to hope that they will in the last minute appear as « deux ex machina » and solve problems that they contributed to develop in the last decades. Lastly, in case a crisis occurs, and contrary to what happened in the last decades, the Dollar will not act as reserve currency anymore due to the fact that the loss of confidence in the US and in their currency (including for the Americans themselves) is precisely one of the characteristics of this new crisis.

_____________

Apart from the analyses detailed in its monthly bulletin, LEAP/E2020 would like to give two clear advices to the readers of this public communication:
. during the unfolding of a global systemic crisis, the main strategy to adopt consists in diversifying as much as possible one’s holdings, because given the unpredictability of the unfolding, only a diversification can limit the loss. It is important to bear in mind the following aspect: in a context of general crisis, the aim is no longer to gain more but to avoid losing too much.
. as regards currencies, LEAP/E2020 noticed that its strategic analyses and advices concerning the Euro were largely read and commented at the highest level of the Eurozone governance system. This reinforces our feeling that Euroland will be in the coming months the only monetary area capable of resisting to a Dollar crisis. Decision-makers have grown aware in the proper timing of the measures to take on D-Day.


Burning Dollars

15.3.06

Usa-Dollar-Iran / Confirmation Crise Systémique Globale fin Mars 2006

Usa-Dollar-Iran / Confirmation Crise Systémique Globale fin Mars 2006

Neuf indices prouvent que la crise est en train de commencer


A travers notamment l’analyse de 9 indices développée dans le GlobalEurope Anticipation Bulletin N°3, dont j’ai coordonné les travaux, et dont cinq sont présentés dans son communiqué public, LEAP/E2020 confirme son alerte concernant le déclenchement d’une crise systémique globale pour la fin du mois de Mars 2006. Les évolutions internationales récentes affectant en particulier le fonctionnement du système financier international et les évolutions préoccupantes aux Etats-Unis notamment quant à la fiabilité des statistiques concernant l’économie américaine , conduisent en effet notre équipe de recherche à conclure que cette crise systémique globale est déjà en train de commencer.

Tout se joue bien autour de M3 …
Comme l’illustre la plupart des 5 indices présentés dans ce communiqué, les dernières semaines ont confirmé le rôle d’indicateur décisif que constitue la décision par la Réserve Fédérale américaine d’arrêter le 23 Mars 2006 la publication de M3 . LEAP/E2020 est désormais convaincu que cette décision anticipe une période qui va voir une accélération de fonctionnement de la planche à billets des Etats-Unis, camouflée derrière un discours de maîtrise de l’inflation, aboutissant à un effondrement du Dollar US et une monétarisation de la dette américaine (publique et privée) dont un nombre croissant de spécialistes aux Etats-Unis estiment qu’elle ne pourra jamais être remboursée vu son montant gigantesque en augmentation constante (la dette publique américaine représente désormais plus de 8.000 milliards de Dollars , soit près de 4 fois le budget fédéral 2006 ). Selon la très conservatrice Heritage Foundation, si l’on intègre les conséquences budgétaires des décisions prises récemment par l’administration Bush concernant la santé et les retraites, la dette réelle est de 42.000 milliards de Dollars, soit 18 fois le budget fédéral, et trois fois et demi le PIB américain de 2005 .

… et de l’Iran
Tout en confirmant le rôle catalyseur de l’ouverture d’une bourse pétrolière en Euro par l’Iran (dont les récentes déclarations iraniennes laissent entendre qu’en cas d’aggravation de la crise les autorités iraniennes pourraient tout simplement décider d’effectuer leurs transactions internationales en Euro, suivant en cela la Syrie qui a décidé d’adopter cette politique il y a quelques semaines) et/ou d’une attaque américaine et/ou israélienne contre l’Iran qui sera probablement une « attaque surprise » et sans soutien du Conseil de Sécurité de l’ONU , l’ampleur de la réaction à la publication du communiqué LEAP/E2020 a mis à jour un malaise profond d’une partie des acteurs du système financier, en particulier des acteurs individuels. L’impact particulièrement important aux Etats-Unis où les réactions se sont focalisées sur la question, centrale à nos yeux désormais, de M3, de la bulle immobilière, des déficits américains et de la réalité des résultats annoncés de l’économie américaine, a conduit LEAP/E2020 à centrer ce deuxième communiqué mensuel public sur cet aspect de la crise systémique globale, d’autant que des éléments particulièrement préoccupants se sont faits jours ces dernières semaines.

La bulle immobilière vient bien d’éclater…
Par ailleurs certaines des prévisions faites par LEAP/E2020 sont déjà devenues réalité comme l’éclatement de la bulle immobilière aux Etats-Unis (baisse de 5% des ventes de maisons neuves en Janvier 2006 par rapport à Janvier 2005, une première depuis 5 ans, et extension à près de 6 mois du stock de maisons à la vente, chiffre le plus élevé depuis 1998 ). La fin de la bulle immobilière américaine va progressivement affecter la consommation des ménages américains qui est elle-même dépendante de leur endettement croissant gagé sur leurs biens immobiliers , parallèlement le ralentissement de l’immobilier va directement affecter la création d’emploi puisque ce secteur a à lui seul fourni 40% des créations d’emplois privés ces cinq dernières années aux Etats-Unis.

… les monnaies et les bourses des pays émergents sont bien les premières touchées par la crise…
Au cours de la semaine du 20 Février 2006, la baisse de la côte de la Couronne islandaise par les agences internationales de notation du fait de l’ampleur des déficits islandais a entraîné une baisse brutale de 10% de cette monnaie suivie de baisses connexes des monnaies brésilienne, sud-africaine, mexicaine et indonésienne du fait des positions spéculatives prises par les opérateurs intervenant sur les monnaies des marchés émergents. La semaine du 6 Mars 2006, c’est au tour des monnaies d’Europe centrale et orientale d’être brutalement attaquées à cause des craintes que représentent leurs déficits excessifs et des nouvelles politiques (hausses d’intérêts et/ou réduction des liquidités par les banques centrales européenne et japonaise). Enfin depuis le 14 Mars 2006, on assiste à un crash des bourses arabes dont celles d’Arabie saoudite et des Emirats arabes (déjà plus de 15% perdus en vingt-quatre heures et les experts locaux s’attendent à une baisse de 50% à 60% dans les prochaines semaines).

… et la crise de confiance dans l’économie américaine est bien un facteur-clé du déclenchement de crise globale
L’un des éléments laissant penser que la crise est déjà en train de commencer est bien l’extraordinaire impact de l’Alerte LEAP/E2020 de Février 2006, qui constitue en soi un indicateur d’une inquiétude immense à l’échelle mondiale. Selon LEAP/E2020, le système financier international, et en particulier sa base « Dollar » , n’est en fait plus fondé que sur deux piliers interconnectés : d’une part la confiance des acteurs dans le système lui-même, et d’autre part les statistiques qui décrivent l’évolution du système. Au titre de ce deuxième pilier, l’impact de l’Alerte LEAP/E2020 au niveau mondial constitue en soi un facteur très important à analyser puisque les dizaines de millions de pages vues, les centaines de milliers de visiteurs individuels sur le site Europe 2020, les traductions spontanées de l’article dans près d’une vingtaine de langues et sa reprise par des centaines de sites, de médias et de blogs dans le monde, et en particulier la popularité de l’analyse aux Etats-Unis même, témoignent d’une inquiétude croissante face à l’évolution du système lui-même. Cet élément est en effet partie intégrante de la crise systémique globale dans un système où le facteur psychologique, la confiance, est devenu central.

Cinq des neuf indices qui témoignent de l’accélération du processus de crise
Voici selon LEAP/E2020, cinq des neufs indices qui prouvent que la crise systémique a déjà commencé :
1. la situation de cessation de paiement du gouvernement américain depuis la mi-Février 2006, car il a atteint le plafond d’endettement autorisé par le congrès. Depuis cette date, le gouvernement américain a cessé d’émettre les « State and Local Government series (SLGS) nonmarketable Treasury Securities », emprunts des collectivités locales américaines, pour continuer à pouvoir émettre les Bons du Trésor US . D’après le ministre des Finances US, John Snow, si à la mi-Mars, le congrès n’a pas voté une hausse du plafond d’endettement de 800 milliards de dollars supplémentaires (soit 10% du plafond actuel de 8 200 milliards de Dollars US, pourtant déjà augmenté deux fois ces 3 dernières années), la cessation de paiement deviendra effective.
2. la démission surprise du N°2 de la Réserve Fédérale, Roger Ferguson, en charge des crises une semaine après la parution de notre alerte de Février, alors qu’il lui restait encore un mandat de 8 ans . Roger Ferguson était celui que les milieux créditaient de la gestion monétaire réussie du 11 Septembre 2001 puisqu’il était aux commandes alors que Greenspan était en Europe ce jour-là. Son opposition aux choix stratégiques du nouveau président de la Réserve Fédérale américaine était de notoriété publique.
3. la décision par la Banque de Chine, principal organisme chinois gérant les réserves de change, d’autoriser ses clients à échanger leurs Dollars US contre de l’or afin notamment de diversifier ses avoirs aujourd’hui principalement en Dollars US .
4. l’accroissement continu des déficits public et commercial US en 2006 (respectivement $119 milliards pour Février et $68,5 milliards pour Janvier) montre qu’il n’y a aucune maîtrise des tendances en cours, et qu’au contraire on constate une accélération des dérives. Le déficit mensuel du budget est le plus élevé jamais enregistré. Le discours dominant à Washington ne cherche même plus à évoquer un redressement, mais se contente d’expliquer que ces déficits sont sans importance car l’économie a changé. C’était également le discours dominant à la veille de l’éclatement de la bulle « Internet », avec la « nouvelle économie » . On sait ce qu’il en a été. A titre d’information, ces cinq dernières années les Etats-Unis ont emprunté au reste du monde plus d’argent que dans toute leur histoire cumulée de 1776 à 2000 .
5. les doutes croissants aux Etats-Unis même sur la fiabilité des statistiques économiques américaines , qui débouchent sur des analyses indiquant que depuis trois ans le PNB américain est en fait en régression et non pas en croissance , et que l’inflation réelle est actuellement entre 6 et 12% aux Etats-Unis (ce qui évidemment à des conséquences directes sur la rentabilité réelle des différents types d’investissements).


Mesure de l’indice des prix à la consommation selon trois méthodes différentes : en Bleu la méthode utilisée sous la présidence Clinton, en Orange la méthode utilisée par l’administration Bush et en Jaune la méthode en cours d’élaboration par les autorités américaines.


L’anticipation est donc bien de circonstance pour tenter de limiter les dégâts
Une crise systémique se répand comme un tsunami progressant à travers l’océan et affectant les différentes côtes avec des délais variables. Quand la vague touche la côte, le tsunami s’est formé depuis déjà un long moment. Et c’est donc en étant informé le plus tôt possible que chacun peut espérer prendre les mesures nécessaires de sauvegarde. En tout état de cause, pour LEAP/E2020, au vu des neufs indices décrits ci-dessous, il ne fait désormais aucun doute que la crise entre désormais dans sa phase de déclenchement.

Au vu des tendances très lourdes et convergentes en direction de la crise systémique annoncée, seules des tendances tout aussi puissantes pourraient inverser l’évolution décrite par LEAP/E2020. A ce jour, LEAP/E2020 n’est pas parvenu à identifier la moindre de ces tendances « inverses ». Contrairement à ce qu’on peut lire parfois, « les crises arrivent même si elles ne semblent pas dans l’intérêt collectif » (la première guerre mondiale ou la crise de 1929 en constituent deux bons exemples). Les dirigeants internationaux n’ont plus aucune maîtrise des évènements comme le démontre chaque jour la crise iranienne, la guerre civile irakienne, ou l’absence de maîtrise des déficits américains. Il est illusoire de les imaginer en « deus ex machina » résolvant à la dernière minute des problèmes qu’ils ont contribué à développer ces dernières années. Et enfin, en cas de crise, et contrairement à ce qu’il s’est passé ces dernières décennies, le Dollar ne jouera plus le rôle de valeur refuge car la perte de confiance dans les Etats-Unis et leur monnaie (y compris par les Américains eux-mêmes) est justement l’un des facteurs de cette nouvelle crise.


Au-delà des analyses détaillées dans GEAB 3, LEAP/E2020 souhaite donner deux indications claires aux lecteurs de son communiqué public:
. quand une crise systémique globale approche, il est essentiel de diversifier ses avoirs au maximum, car dans l’imprévisibilité de son déroulement, seule cette diversification assure d’éviter de perdre trop. Et c’est là un élément important à garder à l’esprit : dans une crise générale, l’objectif n’est plus de gagner, mais devient de ne pas trop perdre.
. en matière de devises, LEAP/E2020 a pu constater que ses analyses et conseils stratégiques concernant l’Euro ont été lus et commentés largement au plus haut niveau des dirigeants de la zone Euro. Cela renforce notre sentiment que l’Euroland constitue dans les mois à venir la seule zone monétaire capable de résister correctement à la crise du Dollar. Les décideurs ont pris conscience dans les délais nécessaires des mesures à prendre pour le jour venu.